False Flag Op. Psycho Manipulation

2011. Crisis of hegemonic capitalism…

Impoverishment, hunger and greater vulnerability of living areas




by Jules Dufour

2010. A year which saw the real world economy severely affected by the financial crisis. The economies of rich countries have been severely weakened by high budget deficits and a heavy national debt, which placed many of them in a situation forcing them to cut public spending jeopardizing social programs. In February 2010, one year after the prospective analysis of the European Laboratory of Policy Anticipation (LEAP) concerning the future of the world economy, "We have seen that such a process is well underway : States on the verge of bankruptcy, inexorable rise in unemployment, millions of people fall out of social safety nets, wage cuts, public service cuts, disaggregation of the global governance system (failure of the Copenhagen summit, growing confrontation China / USA, return of the risk of conflict Iran / Israel / USA, global currency war, etc…)» (LEAP, 2010). However, according to the same organization, we are only at the very beginning of this phase. The sudden worsening of the global systemic crisis will thus be characterized by an acceleration and / or a strengthening of the following five fundamental negative trends:

. "The explosion of the fiscal deficit bubble and the corollary rise in debt defaults by governments;
. The fatal collision of the western banking system with rising defaults and the wall of maturing debt;
. The inevitable rise in interest rates;
. The multiplication of subjects of international tension;
. Growing social insecurity ".

«In the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin  N°42, LEAP chose to analyze the "Greek case", because it seems emblematic of what has  booked the year 2010 and because it "perfectly illustrates the evolution of information on the world crisis in the sense of" war communication "between blocks and increasingly conflicting interests. Clear, it is a "must" to succeed in deciphering the global information of the months and years to come which will be a growing vector of manipulation operations " (LEAP, 2010).

I. Widespread impoverishment and increasing hunger
This situation has and will have a considerable impact on the economies of poor countries by making them even more vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices and speculative maneuvers in the world market.. According to United Nations organizations, the impoverishment of millions of people will increase and thus the procession of the hungry and homeless will increase. According to the FAO, 925 million people are chronically hungry in the world in 2010 dont 15 million in rich countries. According to the International Red Cross, more than 827,6 million live in substandard housing being forced to seek refuge in slums (AFP-Geneva, 2010). According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) “The number of very poor countries has doubled in forty years from 25 in 1971 at 49 in 2010 and the same was true for the number of people living in extreme poverty over the years 1980 » (AFP Geneva, 2010). In his report 2010 on the 49 least developed countries (PMA) world UNCTAD "believes that the development model that has prevailed so far for these countries has failed  and that its architecture needs to be reviewed ” (AFP Geneva, 2010).

II. Large-scale natural and man-made disasters
To this worrying situation. both in the North and in the South, There was a series of large-scale natural and man-made disasters. According to reinsurer Swiss Re, disasters have taken a heavy toll on the world economy by 2010, burdening her with 222 billions of dollars, or more than triple that in 2009 (AFP Geneva, 2010). These disasters have been very devastating for the natural environment and for human settlements: the earthquake in Haiti in january caused the death of 225 000 people and devastated a significant portion of the national territory; Storm Xynthia swept across Western Europe in February; the same month, a violent earthquake with a magnitude of 8.8 hit Chile; the explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig caused the largest oil spill in US history in the Gulf of Mexico in April;; floods of unprecedented magnitude covered vast areas in Pakistan and China in July (AFP-Geneva, 2010).

III. Steadily increasing global military spending
As alarm bells ring out over poverty from international organizations, the hunger and destitution of hundreds of millions of inhabitants of this planet, rich countries spend colossal sums on the acquisition of weapons for war and its preparation.
It can be said that the economic crisis has not  affected the defense sector  Indeed, military spending continued to increase and figures for 2010 and those planned for 2011 show very significant additional sums for defense and security budgets. U.S. Defense Budget Data Shows Substantial Increases. So, into the United States National Defense Budget reached the sum of 661 billion dollars in 2009 and the one that is scheduled for 2011 should be around 749,5 billions of dollars.
In 2010, expenditure on actual military activities reached, in the USA, the sum of 719,2 billions of dollars, assistance to Veterans 125,9 billions of dollars, foreign military aid 9,9 billion and foreign economic aid 41,2 billion (http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/defense_budget_2010_3.html). Contracts for the supply of new combat equipment have skyrocketed. Agreements on the purchase of fighter jets have been concluded with the main manufacturers of war material and, especially, with the Lockeed Martin company for the construction of the F-35 stealth fighter aircraft.
According to the SIPRI database, in 2009, world military spending have reached the 1531 billion dollars of which nearly half was made by the United States (Figures 1, 2 and 3). According to data from a SIPRI report taken over by I. Gedilaghine, “Global military spending has reached new records in 2009 without knowing the effect of the economic crisis, led by the United States where the change of administration could not reverse the trends. During the past year, the world has dedicated 1.531 billions of dollars (1.244 Billions of Euro's) to the military sector, or at constant price an increase of 5,9% compared to 2008 and of 49% compared to 2000, writes the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)».
It can be seen that nothing is being overlooked for the preparations for war and for the security and surveillance of strategic resource reservoirs and production infrastructure.. The prosperity of the most powerful on this planet depends on it.
Figure 1. Lworld military spending in 2009

Figure 2. U.S. Military Spending vs. The World 2008 
Figure 3. World military spending in 2009
IV. The vision of the European Laboratory of Political Anticipation / Europe2020 LEAP 2011
According to LEAP, we are heading towards the very great breakdown of the world economic and financial system.
We reproduce, here, in extenso, the LEAP analysis for 2011. This reveals that over the next few months we will see a gradual deterioration in the US economy with devastating effects of abprd for more than 60 millions of people who live in the United States itself then for all strata of western society.
« As anticipated by LEAP / E2020 last February in GEAB N ° 42, the second semester 2010 is characterized by a brutal worsening of the crisis marked by the end of the illusion of recovery maintained by Western leaders and the trillions swallowed up by the banks and economic "stimulus" plans without lasting effectiveness.
The next few months will unveil a simple but particularly painful reality : western economy, and in particular that of the United States, never really got out of a recession ". Statistical bursts recorded since the summer 2009 were only the passing consequences of a massive injection of liquidity into a fundamentally insolvent system like the American consumer ".
At the heart of the global systemic crisis since its inception, the United States will therefore demonstrate in the coming months that it is once again dragging the world economy and finance into the "heart of darkness" because it is failing to emerge from this "Great Depression US.
So, after the political upheavals of the US elections next November, Against a backdrop of negative growth rates, the world will have to face the "Very Big Blackout" of the world economic and financial system founded more than 60 years on the absolute need for the US economy to never find itself in a lasting recession.
Or, the first half of 2011 will impose on the American economy an unprecedented austerity cure plunging the planet into new financial chaos, monetary, Economic and Social.
The coming quarters are going to be particularly dangerous for the global economic and financial system.
The boss of the Fed, Ben Bernanke, conveyed the message as diplomatically as possible at the recent meeting of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Although the policy of stimulating the American economy has failed, either the rest of the world continues to finance the US deficits at a loss and hopes that at some point this bet will pay off and have avoided a collapse of the global system, either the United States will monetize its debt and turn into monkey money all the Dollars and US Treasury Bills owned by the rest of the planet.
Like any cornered power, the United States is now forced to combine threat and pressure in order to get what it wants. Just over a year ago, leaders and financial officials from around the world had volunteered to "refloat the ship USA.
Today, however, things have changed a lot because the beautiful confidence of Washington has turned out to be nothing but pure arrogance based on the claim to have understood the nature of the crisis and the illusion of possessing the means of control.
Or, US growth evaporates quarter after quarter and will become negative again upon completion 2010 ; unemployment continues to rise between the stability of official figures and the exit in six months of more than two million Americans from the labor market ; the US real estate market continues to be depressed to historically low levels and will resume its fall in the fourth quarter 2010 ; finally, as one can easily imagine under these conditions, the US consumer remains and will remain with absent subscribers for the long term since his insolvency continues or even worsens for the five Americans who do not have a job.
Derrière ces considérations statistiques se cachent deux réalités qui vont radicalement modifier le paysage politique, économique et social américain et mondial des prochains trimestres au fur et à mesure de leur émergence dans la conscience collective.
La colère populaire va paralyser Washington à partir de Novembre 2010.
Tout d’abord, il y a une réalité populaire très sombre qui est celle de dizaines de millions d’Américains (près de soixante millions dépendent désormais des bons de nourriture) qui n’ont désormais plus d’emploi, plus de maison, plus d’épargne et qui se demandent comment ils vont survivre dans les années à venir.» (Crise systémique globale
Conclusion
La population mondiale atteindra, in 2011, les sept milliards d’habitants. Étant donné que l’essentiel des effectifs (more than 80 millions de personnes) s’ajoutent chaque année dans les pays en développement il est permis de penser que le taux de vulnérabilité de leurs zones de vie continuera de s’accroître en causant plus de victimes et des dommages plus importants aux établissements humains. Selon Hervé DOMENACH, Démographe, Directeur de recherches à l’Institut de Recherches pour le Développement, «environ 95 % de l’accroissement démographique actuel dans le monde concerne les pays non occidentaux, et la proportion de leurs effectifs dans la population mondiale qui était de 68 % in 1950, atteindrait 87 % in 2050. Si ces estimations devaient se confirmer, on assistera à une formidable redistribution de la population mondiale» (http://www.x-environnement.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=51%3Asept-2007&catid=36%3Ajaune-rouge&Itemid=41&limitstart=3). Cette réalité devrait entraîner peu à peu un glissement des forces de la gouvernance mondiale vers les pays émergents et les pays dotés de ressources stratégiques majeures.
Le panorama géopolitique mondial sera appelé à changer progressivement et celui qui est prévisible, for 2011, nous semble celui qui sera marqué par une augmentation des tensions interétatiques, car au fur et à mesure que les économies occidentales continueront de s’enliser dans le fossé abrupt et profond des déficits budgétaires les autres facteurs de déstabilisation agiront sur la gouvernance mondiale. La doctrine de l’intervention armée préventive promue depuis le début du siècle par les États-Unis avec la guerre mondiale contre le terreur pourrait être appliquée par des puissances régionales, mais les prérogatives des grandes puissances continueront de triompher encore longtemps en attisant les points chauds comme la Corée du Nord, le Moyen Orient ou l’environnement créé par la résistance des membres de l’ALBA. Parmi les facteurs déterminants nous aurons les manifestations de la volonté de puissance de la Russie et la stratégie de conquête de la Chine pour les nouvelles sources de matières premières et pour les marchés financiers et économiques en émergence.
Il est indéniable que les guerres d’invasion et d’occupation de l’Irak et de l’Afghanistan ont atteint les limites de leur vie utile en étant, pour l’impérialisme, de plus en plus difficiles à justifier. En Afghanistan, l’armée nationale refondue et dèsormais mieux équipée pour les combats remplacera les forces de la coalition. Un modus operandi «normal» sera alors mis en place avec le support de l’aide militaire et économique des puissances occidentales. L’Afghanistan se transformera en un point d’ancrage continental pour les États-Unis et l’OTAN à l’instar du rôle joué par Israel au Moyen Orient et par la Colombie en Amérique latine.
On peut entrevoir à l’horizon, however, une chute lente et inexorable de l’Occident qui s’inscrira dans un mouvement logique obéissant aux contingences créées par son poids démographique de plus en plus faible dans l’ensemble mondial. Des enjeux de forte intensité seront necessaires pour mobiliser l’économie mondiale derrière le maintien de l’hégémonie des grandes puissances. Le déclenchement d’une guerre nucléaire contre l’Iran et la Corée du Nord? Un autre 11 September? Une invasion musclée du Venezuela? Pour les stratèges du Pentagone et de la Maison Blanche aucune option ne sera exclue pour sauvegarder les intérêts de la première puissance mondiale.

 Source www.mondialisation.ca/ HERE
 References
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AFP-GENÈVE. 2010. Un rapport de la Croix-Rouge Internationale. Un milliard de personnes vivent dans des bidonvilles. Ces populations sont les plus vulnérables aux catastrophes. Journal Le Devoir, the 22 September 2010, p. B7.
AFP-GENÈVE. 2010. Cri d’alarme de la CNUCED. Le nombre de pays très pauvres a doublé en quarante ans. Journal le Devoir, the 26 September 2010, p. A7.
AFP-GENÈVE. 2010. Les catastrophes ont coûté 222 milliards à l’économie mondiale. Journal Le Devoir, le 1er décembre 2010, p. B5.
ARTHUS-BERTRAND, Yann. 2009. HOME. Déchiffrer. S’informer. Débattre. Comprendre. Agir. Paris, Mame. 2009. 190 pages.
DUFOUR, Jules. 2009. Une guerre mondiale au secours de l’Empire américain. Montréal, Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation (CRM). The 3 mars 2009. En ligne: http://www.mondialisation.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12533
DUFOUR, Jules. 2009. Le grand réarmement planétaire. Montréal, Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation (CRM). The 5 May 2009. En ligne: http://www.mondialisation.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=13162
ENGDAHL, J.F., 2010. La géopolitique derrière la guerre bidon des États-Unis en Afghanistan. Montréal, Centre de recherche sur la mondialisation (CRM). The 2 November 2009. En ligne: http://www.mondialisation.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=15909
FAO. 2010. 925 millions de personnes victimes de faim chronique dans le monde. Malgré une amélioration, ce niveau demeure “inacceptable”. Espace Presse. The 14 October 2010. En ligne: http://www.fao.org/news/story/fr/item/45232/icode/
GEDILAGHINE, Igor. 2010. Les dépenses militaires mondiales ne connaissent ni crise ni effet Obama. AFP. France-Amérique. Journal français des Amériques. Le 1er juin 2010. En ligne: http://www.france-amerique.com/articles/2010/06/01/les_depenses_militaires_mondiales_ne_connaissent_ni_crise_ni_effet_obama.html
SHAH, Anup. 2010. World Military Spending. Global Issues.org. Social, Political, Economic and Environmental Issues That Affect Us All. The 7 July 2010. En ligne: http://www.globalissues.org/article/75/world-military-spending#WorldMilitarySpending
WIKEPÉDIA. 2010. Deepwater Horizon. En ligne: http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon 
Sites Internet
Laboratoire Européen d’Anticipation Politique/Europe2020 (Leap/E2020): http://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leap/Europe2020
List of countries by military Expenditures. En ligne: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures
Worldometersstatistiques mondiales en temps réel: http://www.worldometers.info/fr/


 
Jules Dufour, Ph.D., est président de l’Association canadienne pour les Nations Unies (ACNU) /Section Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean, professeur émérite à l’Université du Québec à Chicoutimi,   membre du cercle universel des Ambassadeurs de la Paix, membre chevalier de l’Ordre national du Québec. Il est associé de recherche au CRM (Centre de recherche sur la Mondialisation).


Jules Dufour est un collaborateur régulier de Mondialisation.ca.  Articles de Jules Dufour publiés par Mondialisation.ca
 

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